Research
Take a closer look at innovations and shifts in investment management and risk assessment.
-
The Stock-Bond Correlation: Where to from here?
With earnings and bond yields converging and starting to move in the same direction more and more often, many investors are beginning to wonder what the relationship between the two major asset classes will look like going forward. In this paper, we review the historical relation between share and bond prices and relate it to recent developments. We examine the impact on portfolio risk, explore alternatives for diversification options and provide an outlook on a potential future relationship.
-
Q1 2019 Insights
Risk Retreats Around the Globe
Though US remains riskier than most benchmarks.
Stocks rallied around the globe in the first quarter of 2019, with most indices nearly recouping the steep losses of the previous quarter. Stocks rose as major central banks kept interest rates unchanged, allaying investor concerns of a global economic slowdown. With most US economic indicators on the positive side, some US indices recorded the biggest quarterly gains since the global financial crisis, while others approached record highs.The turnaround corresponded to a sharp decline in risk. China was the only exception, with its risk at quarter-end higher than where it started. Even the UK market saw its risk fall, despite Brexit-related tumult. That said, the US remained at the top of the risk list, an atypical position it occupied in Q4 2018.
-
Introducing Axioma’s ROOF™ Score Methodology
In this whitepaper, we are undertaking an ambitious task of leveraging factor return and benchmark risk data from Axioma’s standard fundamental equity models to determine whether we are in a risk-tolerant (risk-on) or risk-averse (risk-off) market; and develop a market-sentiment indicator that will help predict the future market risk behavior.
-
What, Exactly, Is a Factor?
What, Exactly, Is a Factor? According to BlackRock, as of June 2018 there was $1.9 trillion invested in factor-based strategies—a figure expected to grow by nearly 80% to $3.4 trillion by 2022. There is no question that these strategies have moved to the forefront of investing, but their growing popularity begs the basic question: what do we mean by “factor”?
-
A Survey of ESG Vendor Data: Strategies for Managing Score Differences
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) data availability, marketing presence and regulation continue to increase in the investment community. Recent articles have reported several remarkable instances of score divergence between data vendors. However, those articles did not attempt to determine whether the disparities represented isolated outliers or were a common occurrence in ESG data.
-
Catch Me If You Can - Capturing Runaway Asian Spreads in the Equity World
The big story in 2018 has been the surge in spreads of USD Asian High-Yield bonds. Hit by a combination of higher US interest rates, a stronger USD, and volatile geopolitics, the risk premium demanded by investors for holding Asian High-Yield corporate bonds surged in 2018 returning to their 2015 highs. In this research note, we use the newly released APAC ex-Japan model from Axioma (AX-APxJP4) to construct an equity portfolio of high-yield issuers and use the new fundamental style factors in the model to draw a parallel between the equity and the bond world. The idea behind this exercise is to see if we can create a sort of ‘canary in the coal mine’ equity portfolio that will mimic the warning signs of spreads in the bond market for equity investors. We find that exposures to the additional fundamental style factors in the new model accurately capture the profile of high-yield issuers and can help equity investors build an early warning system mimicking that of rising spreads in the bond market.
-
Q4 2018 Insights
Risk Finally Rears Its Ugly Head
And takes a bite out of 2018
Year-end 2018 was the antithesis of the close-out in 2017. While investors reveled in large equity gains and low volatility the year before, 2018 brought the misery of steep losses and high levels of volatility. Markets were choppy throughout the year and especially in the fourth quarter, with stocks wavering between gains and losses. Major indices around the globe fell abruptly from the record levels reached in January, ending the year under water. The corresponding increase in volatility of indexes, countries, style factors, etc. suggest that managers of all stripes may want to reevaluate their portfolios to reflect the changed environment.
-
Crowded Trades Don't Explain Managers' Recent Pain
It has been a tough couple months for many managers, especially hedge funds. Some have speculated that there has been a large unwinding of crowded risk-factor positions. We do not see that in our factor returns, and instead propose a few other possible culprits.
-
The Year of the Central Banks
2019 will be a decisive year for three of the world’s biggest central banks. In this paper, we use the stress-testing capabilities of our Axioma Risk™ platform to examine the impact of rate hikes on a global multi-asset class portfolio, with a particular focus on equity and credit spread performance in response to a yield curve inversion.
-
A Golden Goose Goes Missing
This paper examines the Index Effect and reports that it has weakened significantly since 2013. The Index Effect is the phenomenon where stocks added to an index experience positive excess returns in the days immediately before they are officially added to the index, while stocks that are removed from the index experience negative excess returns in the days immediately before they are officially removed.
