Qontigo ROOF™ Scores - Past Updates

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2020


January 6, 2020: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
2020 started with a BANG, literally. Investors are hoping it won’t end with a BOOM. A sharp reversal of sentiment in APAC ex-Japan, Developed EU, and Emerging Markets, with the UK being the only market from Christmas’ ‘naughty’ list not to make a full recovery. Regional markets lead with optimism in the first week of the year, with APAC ex-Japan, Emerging Markets, and Developed Markets recording risk tolerance levels above their respective 98th -percentile levels (too good to be true). Read more >

2019


December 23, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
2019 comes to an end with the partial resolution of two key issues for markets – the US-China trade war and Brexit – but after an unbeatable year for both stocks and bonds, investors seem divided on how things will proceed in 2020. As we head into the Christmas week, Santa has clearly made his lists. The UK, Emerging Markets, Asia ex-Japan, and Developed Europe are on the ‘naughty’ list, while Japan, Australia, the US, China, and Developed Markets are on the ‘Nice’ list. The UK ended last week with its highest risk aversion and lowest risk tolerance scores since January 2003! Emerging Markets, Asia ex-Japan, and Developed Europe are not far behind with risk aversion scores in the 96-,95- , and 91-percentile respectively. What are they so afraid of? Read more >

December 16, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
Sentiment is back in the neutral zone for all the markets (9) we track reflecting investor’s belief that the number one threat to the global economy is now seemingly out of the way, but may have already been bought and paid for with the US and Chinese markets up 7% and 10% respectively since early October. More details on the deal itself and clear signs it will have an impact on earnings and the global economy might be needed for sentiment to rise further. Read more >

December 9, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
Sentiment in the US takes a cautionary step back ahead of the December 15 tariff deadline. Risk appetite takes a decidedly negative turn in Developed Europe, but the markets still refuse to listen, continuing to rise last week despite a very low (3-percentile since 2003) ROOF score. Japan, DM, and EM all await direction out of this weekend’s events. Read more >

December 2, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
Sentiment in the US returns to more sustainable levels but remains strongly positive and supportive of higher market moves. Japan overtakes the US as the most risk tolerant country. Sentiment falls in the UK driven mostly by a lack of risk tolerance ahead of the general elections there next week. And a growing risk aversion in Australia is being ignored by the market. Read more >

November 25, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
Sentiment in the US jumps to the 95th-percentile rank from an already high level the previous week on increased optimism about a trade deal with China and the continued resilience of the American consumer. Sentiment was also lifted in Japan (89th-percentile) as the market there plays catch-up with its global peers. ROOF scores for China recover from very negative levels the prior week (6th-percentile), to neutral currently as the events in HK balance optimism on the trade front. Read more >

November 18, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
On the clock face of investor sentiment, resilience stands at 12 o’clock, flanked by complacency at 11 and denial at 1. Resilient sentiment continues to provide support for markets in the face of not-as-bad-as-feared data releases. Strong ROOF scores mean that investors will tend to overreact to data that confirms their positive bias (complacency) and ignore ones that don’t (denial). In the absence of strongly negative data, we expect this resilience to continue to provide support for markets. Read more >

November 10, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
Sentiment reverts to neutral after reaching a high in several markets on positive earnings and the announcement of a mini-trade deal in the making between the US and China. Conflicting macro data and the lack of details around the mini deal itself, as well as a date and a place for signature, however, has raised more questions than they answered, and investor sentiment has returned to a neutral stance. Read more >

November 4, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
Sentiment in the US and Developed markets surges to catch-up with markets. The Brexit delay and fresh elections in the UK weigh on sentiment in the UK and Developed Europe. Sentiment in Japan continues to drop and increases the dislocation with a rising market. Chinese investors do not seem to share the optimism of their US counterparts about a possible mini deal later this month. Read more >

October 28, 2019: Qontigo ROOFTM Score Highlights
The UK and Developed Europe continue to get a positive boost from the avoidance of a hard Brexit, but sentiment is also restrained from the uncertainty of another prolongation, leading to little movement in their respective ROOF Scores. Sentiment in the US dropped back to the neutral zone ahead of a heavy week of earnings releases by index heavyweights. Read more >


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